India has revised its economic growth estimate for the current financial year to 7.6%, following an update to its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) calculation framework. The announcement highlights the country’s resilience amid global trade disruptions and ongoing economic challenges.

The updated forecast was released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on Friday, aligning with the median estimate from a Bloomberg survey. This is an upward revision from the government’s previous projection of 7.4% in January, which was based on the older GDP series.

New GDP Framework and Base Year Update

The government has rebased India’s GDP from the year 2011–12 to 2022–23, reflecting the economy’s evolution over the past decade. This includes adjustments in the sectoral weights to better represent current economic activity.

Economists note that such revisions have historically boosted GDP estimates. A similar rebasing in 2015 increased India’s GDP by roughly $120 billion, raising the estimated growth rate for 2013–14 from 4.7% to 6.9%.

According to Madhavi Arora, economist at Emkay Global Financial Services, the new series provides “improved sectoral representation” and a “more comprehensive capture of economic activity.”

Quarterly Economic Performance

Data for the three months ending in December show that the Indian economy expanded 7.8% year-on-year, slightly above the 7.6% median forecast from market analysts.

This quarter is the first full period following major tax cuts announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government last year, aimed at boosting consumer spending and shielding the economy from global trade shocks.

Market Response and Implications

The 10-year benchmark government bond yield fell marginally by two basis points to 6.67%, maintaining levels seen prior to the data release. Both stock and currency markets were closed when the figures were published.

The GDP revision is part of broader efforts to improve official statistics and better capture shifts in India’s economy. Earlier this month, the government also revised the inflation series to account for changing spending patterns.

Conclusion

India’s upward growth revision to 7.6% underscores the country’s economic resilience and reflects a more accurate representation of current activity. Analysts expect that the new GDP framework will provide a stronger foundation for policy-making and more reliable economic data moving forward.